COVID-19 incidence and mortality in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease patients.

Many studies reported a higher risk of COVID-19 disease among patients on dialysis or with kidney transplantation, and the poor outcome of COVID-19 in these patients. Patients in conservative management for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have received attention only recently, therefore less is known about how COVID-19 affects this population. The aim of this study was to provide evidence on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in CKD patients followed up in an integrated healthcare program and in the population living in the same catchment area. The study population included CKD patients recruited in the Emilia-Romagna Prevention of Progressive Renal Insufficiency (PIRP) project, followed up in the 4 nephrology units (Ravenna, Forlì, Cesena and Rimini) of the Romagna Local Health Authority (Italy) and alive at 1.01.2020. We estimated the incidence of COVID-19, its related mortality and the excess mortality within this PIRP cohort as of 31.07.2020. COVID-19 incidence in CKD patients was 4.09% (193/4,716 patients), while in the general population it was 0.46% (5,195/1,125,574). The crude mortality rate among CKD patients with COVID-19 was 44.6% (86/193), compared to 4.7% (215/4,523) in CKD patients without COVID-19. The excess mortality of March-April 2020 was +69.8% than the average mortality of March-April 2015-19 in the PIRP cohort. In a cohort mostly including regularly followed up CKD patients, the incidence of COVID-19 among CKD patients was strongly related to the spread of the infection in the community, while its lethality is associated with the underlying kidney condition and comorbidities. COVID-19 related mortality was about ten times higher than that of CKD patients without COVID. For this reason, it is urgent to offer a direct protection to CKD patients by prioritizing their vaccination.

Volume Balance in Chronic Kidney Disease: Evaluation Methodologies and Innovation Opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Patients affected by chronic kidney disease are at a risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Body fluids unbalance is one of the main characteristics of this condition, as fluid overload is highly prevalent in patients affected by the cardiorenal syndrome. SUMMARY: We describe the state of the art and new insights into body volume evaluation. The mechanisms behind fluid balance are often complex, mainly because of the interplay of multiple regulatory systems. Consequently, its management may be challenging in clinical practice and even more so out-of-hospital. Availability of novel technologies offer new opportunities to improve the quality of care and patients' outcome. Development and validation of new technologies could provide new tools to reduce costs for the healthcare system, promote personalized medicine, and boost home care. Due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, a proper monitoring of chronic patients suffering from fluid unbalances is extremely relevant. Key Message: We discuss the main mechanisms responsible for fluid overload in different clinical contexts, including hemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, and heart failure, emphasizing the potential impact provided by the implementation of the new technologies.

Renal function, serum magnesium levels and mortality in COVID-19 patients with type 2 diabetes.

Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and Latin American subjects in particular are at an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19 and mortality. Altered renal function and lower magnesium levels have been reported to play important roles in the pathophysiology of T2D. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between renal function, serum magnesium levels and mortality in T2D patients with COVID-19. In this retrospective study, we characterized 118 T2D and non-diabetic subjects hospitalized with COVID-19. Patients were clinically characterized and electrolyte, renal function and inflammatory markers were evaluated. Patients were grouped according to their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2). T2D patients had lower eGFR and serum magnesium levels when compared to non-diabetics (59.7 ± 32.8 vs. 78.4 ± 33.8 mL/min per 1.73 m2, P = 0.008 and 1.9 ± 0.3 vs. 2.1 ± 0.3 mEq/L, P = 0.012). Survival was worse in T2D patients with eGFR levels less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 as estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses (log-rank test <0.0001). The Cox model for T2D patients showed that eGFR (HR 0.970, 95% CI 0.949 to 0.991, P = 0.005) and magnesium (HR 8.025, 95% CI 1.226 to 52.512, P = 0.030) were associated with significantly increased risk of death. Reduced eGFR and magnesium levels were associated with increased mortality in our population. These results suggest that early assessment of kidney function, including magnesium levels, may assist in developing effective treatment strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality among Latin American COVID-19 patients with T2D.

Association of Kidney Disease With Outcomes in COVID-19: Results From the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry.

Background Emerging evidence links acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with COVID-19 with higher mortality and respiratory morbidity, but the relationship of AKI with cardiovascular disease outcomes has not been reported in this population. We sought to evaluate associations between chronic kidney disease (CKD), AKI, and mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Methods and Results In a large multicenter registry including 8574 patients with COVID-19 from 88 US hospitals, data were collected on baseline characteristics and serial laboratory data during index hospitalization. Primary exposure variables were CKD (categorized as no CKD, CKD, and end-stage kidney disease) and AKI (classified into no AKI or stages 1, 2, or 3 using a modification of the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guideline definition). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The key secondary outcome was major adverse cardiac events, defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, new-onset nonfatal heart failure, and nonfatal cardiogenic shock. CKD and end-stage kidney disease were not associated with mortality or major adverse cardiac events after multivariate adjustment. In contrast, AKI was significantly associated with mortality (stage 1 hazard ratio [HR], 1.72 [95% CI, 1.46-2.03]; stage 2 HR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.52-2.20]; stage 3 HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.44-1.98]; versus no AKI) and major adverse cardiac events (stage 1 HR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.74-2.71]; stage 2 HR, 2.70 [95% CI, 2.07-3.51]; stage 3 HR, 3.06 [95% CI, 2.52-3.72]; versus no AKI). Conclusions This large study demonstrates a significant association between AKI and all-cause mortality and, for the first time, major adverse cardiovascular events in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

COVID-19 in CKD Patients: Lessons from 553 CKD Patients with Biopsy-Proven Kidney Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients infected with COVID-19 are at risk of serious complications such as hospitalization and death. The prognosis and lethality of COVID-19 infection in patients with established kidney disease has not been widely studied. METHODS: Data included patients who underwent kidney biopsy at the Vall d'Hebron Hospital between January 2013 and February 2020 with COVID-19 diagnosis during the period from March 1 to May 15, 2020. RESULTS: Thirty-nine (7%) patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 infection. Mean age was 63 ± 15 years and 48.7% were male. Hypertension was present in 79.5%, CKD without renal replacement therapy in 76.9%, and cardiovascular disease in 64.1%. Nasopharyngeal swab was performed in 26 patients; older (p = 0.01), hypertensive (p = 0.005), and immunosuppressed (p = 0.01) patients, those using RAS-blocking drugs (p = 0.04), and those with gastrointestinal symptoms (p = 0.02) were more likely to be tested for CO-VID-19. Twenty-two patients required hospitalization and 15.4% died. In bivariate analysis, mortality was associated with older age (p = 0.03), cardiovascular disease (p = 0.05), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p = 0.05), and low hemoglobin levels (p = 0.006). Adjusted Cox regression showed that low hemoglobin levels at admission had 1.81 greater risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CO-VID-19 infection and kidney disease confirmed by kidney biopsy presented a mortality of 15.4%. Swab test for COVID-19 was more likely to be performed in older, hypertensive, and immunosuppressed patients, those using RAS-blocking drugs, and those with gastrointestinal symptoms. Low hemoglobin is a risk factor for mortality.

Nationwide survey of the coronavirus disease 2019 prevention and treatment systems for kidney disease patients: a study of Japanese Society of Nephrology-certified educational facilities.

BACKGROUND: There are no reports of a large-scale survey on the infection prevention measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in nephrology facilities. This study investigated the facility-level nephrology practices adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic and their associated challenges. Additionally, the treatment patterns and outcomes of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with COVID-19 were reviewed. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide questionnaire survey of 704 educational facilities that were certified by the Japanese Society of Nephrology (JSN) from October 20, 2020 to November 16, 2020. The questionnaire reviewed the facility characteristics, infection prevention measures taken during routine nephrology practice, impact of COVID-19 on nephrology practice, experiences in managing CKD patients with COVID-19, and nosocomial transmission in the nephrology unit. RESULTS: Of the 347 facilities that responded, 95.1% checked outpatients' body temperatures and COVID-19 symptoms at their visits. To reduce face-to-face contact, 80% and 70% of the facilities lengthened the intervals between outpatient visits and introduced online/telephonic consultations, respectively. As a result, more than half of the hospitals experienced a decrease in the numbers of outpatients and inpatients (64% and 50%, respectively). During the study period, 347 facilities managed 479 CKD patients with COVID-19. Oxygen administration and mechanical ventilation were performed for 47.8% and 16.5% of the patients, respectively, with a 9.2% total mortality rate. CONCLUSION: This survey demonstrated that JSN-certified educational nephrology facilities adopted multiple measures to manage the COVID-19 pandemic; however, they faced several challenges. Sharing these experiences could standardize these approaches and prepare us better for the future.

COVID-19 and the kidney: A retrospective analysis of 37 critically ill patients using machine learning.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that SARS-CoV2 has a particular affinity for kidney tissue and is often associated with kidney failure. METHODS: We assessed whether proteinuria can be predictive of kidney failure, the development of chronic kidney disease, and mortality in 37 critically ill COVID-19 patients. We used machine learning (ML) methods as decision trees and cut-off points created by the OneR package to add new aspects, even in smaller cohorts. RESULTS: Among a total of 37 patients, 24 suffered higher-grade renal failure, 20 of whom required kidney replacement therapy. More than 40% of patients remained on hemodialysis after intensive care unit discharge or died (27%). Due to frequent anuria proteinuria measured in two-thirds of the patients, it was not predictive for the investigated endpoints; albuminuria was higher in patients with AKI 3, but the difference was not significant. ML found cut-off points of >31.4 kg/m2 for BMI and >69 years for age, constructed decision trees with great accuracy, and identified highly predictive variables for outcome and remaining chronic kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: Different ML methods and their clinical application, especially decision trees, can provide valuable support for clinical decisions. Presence of proteinuria was not predictive of CKD or AKI and should be confirmed in a larger cohort.

COVID-19 in chronic kidney disease: a retrospective, propensity score-matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic factors for COVID-19 in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are uncertain. We conducted a study to compare clinical and prognostic features between hospitalized COVID-19 patients with and without CKD. METHODS: Fifty-six patients with stage 3-5 CKD and propensity score-matched fifty-six patients without CKD were included in the study. Patients were followed-up at least fifteen days or until death after COVID-19 diagnosis. The endpoints were death from all causes, development of acute kidney injury (AKI) or cytokine release syndrome or respiratory failure, or admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). RESULTS: All patients were reviewed retrospectively over a median follow-up of 44 days (IQR, 36-52) after diagnosis of COVID-19. Patients with CKD had higher intensive care unit admission and mortality rates than the patients without CKD, but these results did not reach statistical significance (16 vs. 19; p = 0.54 and 11 vs. 16, p = 0.269, respectively). The frequency of AKI development was significantly higher in predialysis patients with CKD compared to the other group (8 vs. 5; p < 0.001), but there was no significant difference between the groups in terms of cytokine release syndrome (13 vs. 8; p = 0.226), follow-up in the ICU (19 vs. 16; p = 0.541), and respiratory failure (25 vs. 22, p = 0.566). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that respiratory failure and AKI were independent risk factors for mortality. CONCLUSION: The mortality rates of COVID-19 patients with CKD had higher than COVID-19 patients without CKD. Also, AKI and respiratory failure were independently related to mortality.

Mortality in chronic kidney disease patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

At the beginning of 2020, the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to a worldwide pandemic and mass panic. The number of infected people has been increasing exponentially since, and the mortality rate has also been concomitantly increasing. At present, no study has summarized the mortality risk of COVID-19 in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Therefore, the aim of the present study was to conduct a literature review and meta-analysis to understand the frequency of mortality among CKD patients infected with COVID-19. A comprehensive systematic search was conducted on the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases to find articles published until May 15, 2020. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. After careful screening based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 3,867,367 patients from 12 studies were included. The mortality rate was significantly higher among CKD patients with COVID-19 infection than among CKD patients without COVID-19 infection, as indicated by a pooled OR of 5.81 (95% CI 3.78-8.94, P < 0.00001, I2 = 30%). The patients were then stratified into ≥ 70 and < 70 years, and subgroup analysis revealed that among CKD patients with COVID-19 infection, the mortality rate was higher in the < 70 years group (OR 8.69, 95% CI 7.56-9.97, P < 0.0001) than in the ≥ 70 years group (OR 2.44, 95% CI 0.75-6.63, P = 0.15). Thus, COVID-19 patients with CKD have a high mortality risk and require a comprehensive multidisciplinary management strategy.

The Involvement of Chronic Kidney Disease and Acute Kidney Injury in Disease Severity and Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the association of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI) with the clinical prognosis of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: The PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, Social Science Research Network, and Research Square databases (from December 1, 2019 to May 15, 2020) were searched to identify studies that reported the associations of CKD/AKI and disease severity/mortality. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and meta-regression was performed. RESULTS: In total, 42 studies enrolling 8,932 participants were included in this meta-analysis. The quality of most included studies was moderate to high. Compared with patients without previously diagnosed CKD, those with CKD had a significantly increased risk of progressing to a severe condition (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.64-3.24) or death (OR 5.11, 95% CI 3.36-7.77). Similarly, compared with patients without AKI, those with AKI had a significantly increased risk of progressing to a severe condition (OR 11.88, 95% CI 9.29-15.19) or death (OR 30.46, 95% CI 18.33-50.59). Compared with patients with previously diagnosed CKD, those with AKI were more likely to progress to a severe condition (pgroup < 0.001, I2 = 98.3%) and even to death (pgroup < 0.001, I2 = 96.5%). Age had a significant impact on the association between CKD and disease severity (p = 0.001) but had no impact on the associations between AKI and disease severity (p = 0.80), between CKD and mortality (p = 0.51), or between AKI and mortality (p = 0.86). Four important complications (cardiac injury, shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and liver injury) did not significantly affect the associations between CKD/AKI and disease severity/mortality, indicating that CKD/AKI may be independent clinical prognostic indicators for patients with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: In COVID-19 patients, CKD/AKI was associated with worse outcomes compared with those without CKD/AKI. AKI was associated with higher risks of severity and mortality than CKD.

The potential association between common comorbidities and severity and mortality of coronavirus disease 2019: A pooled analysis.

BACKGROUD: The association between underlying comorbidities and cardiac injury and the prognosis in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients was assessed in this study. HYPOTHESIS: The underlying comorbidities and cardiac injury may be associated with the prognosis in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of science, and The Cochrane library from December 2019 to July 2020. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were used to estimate the probability of comorbidities and cardiac injury in COVID-19 patients with or without severe type, or in survivors vs nonsurvivors of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: A total of 124 studies were included in this analysis. A higher risk for severity was observed in COVID-19 patients with comorbidities. The pooled result in patients with hypertension (OR 2.57, 95% CI: 2.12-3.11), diabetes (OR 2.54, 95% CI: 1.89-3.41), cardiovascular diseases (OR 3.86, 95% CI: 2.70-5.52), chronic obstractive pulmonary disease (OR 2.71, 95% CI: 1.98-3.70), chronic kidney disease (OR 2.20, 95% CI: 1.27-3.80), and cancer (OR 2.42, 95% CI: 1.81-3.22) respectively. All the comorbidities presented a higher risk of mortality. Moreover, the prevalence of acute cardiac injury is higher in severe group than in nonsevere group, and acute cardiac injury is associated with an increased risk for in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities and acute cardiac injury are closely associated with poor prognosis in COVID-19 patients. It is necessary to continuously monitor related clinical indicators of organs injury and concern comorbidities in COVID-19 patients.

Kidney disease and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in Genoa, Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of kidney involvement during SARS-CoV-2 infection has been reported to be high. Nevertheless, data are lacking about the determinants of acute kidney injury (AKI) and the combined effect of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and AKI in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We collected data on patient demographics, comorbidities, chronic medications, vital signs, baseline laboratory test results and in-hospital treatment in patients with COVID-19 consecutively admitted to our Institution. Chronic kidney disease was defined as eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or proteinuria at urinalysis within 180 days prior to hospital admission. AKI was defined according to KDIGO criteria. The primary and secondary outcomes were the development of AKI and death. RESULTS: Of 777 patients eligible for the study, acute kidney injury developed in 176 (22.6%). Of these, 79 (45%) showed an acute worsening of a preexisting CKD, and 21 (12%) required kidney replacement therapy. Independent associates of AKI were chronic kidney disease, C-reactive protein (CRP) and ventilation support. Among patients with acute kidney injury, 111 died (63%) and its occurrence increased the risk of death by 60% (HR 1.60 [95% IC 1.21-2.49] p = 0.002) independently of potential confounding factors including hypertension, preexisting kidney damage, and comorbidities. Patients with AKI showed a significantly higher rate of deaths attributed to bleeding compared to CKD and the whole population (7.5 vs 1.5 vs 3.5%, respectively). CONCLUSION: Awareness of kidney function, both preexisting CKD and development of acute kidney injury, may help to identify those patients at increased risk of death.

Association of cardiovascular disease and 10 other pre-existing comorbidities with COVID-19 mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the risk of pre-existing comorbidities on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality may promote the importance of targeting populations at risk to improve survival. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the association of pre-existing comorbidities with COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, OVID, and Cochrane Library databases, and medrxiv.org from December 1st, 2019, to July 9th, 2020. The outcome of interest was the risk of COVID-19 mortality in patients with and without pre-existing comorbidities. We analyzed 11 comorbidities: cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, and HIV/AIDS. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. All analyses were performed using random-effects models and heterogeneity was quantified. RESULTS: Eleven pre-existing comorbidities from 25 studies were included in the meta-analysis (n = 65, 484 patients with COVID-19; mean age; 61 years; 57% male). Overall, the between-study heterogeneity was medium, and studies had low publication bias and high quality. Cardiovascular disease (risk ratio (RR) 2.25, 95% CI = 1.60-3.17, number of studies (n) = 14), hypertension (1.82 [1.43 to 2.32], n = 13), diabetes (1.48 [1.02 to 2.15], n = 16), congestive heart failure (2.03 [1.28 to 3.21], n = 3), chronic kidney disease (3.25 [1.13 to 9.28)], n = 9) and cancer (1.47 [1.01 to 2.14), n = 10) were associated with a significantly greater risk of mortality from COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 with cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, congestive heart failure, chronic kidney disease and cancer have a greater risk of mortality compared to patients with COVID-19 without these comorbidities. Tailored infection prevention and treatment strategies targeting this high-risk population might improve survival.

Prevalence of co-morbidities and their association with mortality in patients with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To estimate the prevalence of both cardiometabolic and other co-morbidities in patients with COVID-19, and to estimate the increased risk of severity of disease and mortality in people with co-morbidities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medline, Scopus and the World Health Organization website were searched for global research on COVID-19 conducted from January 2019 up to 23 April 2020. Study inclusion was restricted to English language publications, original articles that reported the prevalence of co-morbidities in individuals with COVID-19, and case series including more than 10 patients. Eighteen studies were selected for inclusion. Data were analysed using random effects meta-analysis models. RESULTS: Eighteen studies with a total of 14 558 individuals were identified. The pooled prevalence for co-morbidities in patients with COVID-19 disease was 22.9% (95% CI: 15.8 to 29.9) for hypertension, 11.5% (9.7 to 13.4) for diabetes, and 9.7% (6.8 to 12.6) for cardiovascular disease (CVD). For chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), cerebrovascular disease and cancer, the pooled prevalences were all less than 4%. With the exception of cerebrovascular disease, all the other co-morbidities presented a significantly increased risk for having severe COVID-19. In addition, the risk of mortality was significantly increased in individuals with CVD, COPD, CKD, cerebrovascular disease and cancer. CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with COVID-19, the presence of co-morbidities (both cardiometabolic and other) is associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19 and mortality. These findings have important implications for public health with regard to risk stratification and future planning.

COVID-19 pandemic: The role of community pharmacists in chronic kidney disease management supportive care.

The COVID-19 pandemic is putting enormous pressure on healthcare systems worldwide and various countries are struggling to flatten the curve to prevent their healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed. Studies have shown that people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality. However, the interruption of routine care and support due to the current challenges with healthcare providers, facilities, and essential medicines due to this pandemic is adversely affecting people with CKD. This is because poor management of this disease leads to negative health outcomes. In order to maintain good health, this vulnerable group of patients rely heavily on the extended role of the community pharmacists in chronic disease management. This paper highlights the extended role of the community pharmacists in CKD management supportive care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of various comorbidities on serious events.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Currently there is limited knowledge on medical comorbidities and COVID-19; we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of various morbidities on serious events in COVID 19. METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Clinical Trials were searched on April 28, 2020, to extract published articles that reported the outcomes of COVID-19 patients. The search terms were "coronavirus" and "clinical characteristics". ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, ARDS, Pneumonia, death was considered serious events. The comorbidities assessed in the study were Hypertension (HTN), Diabetes mellitus (DM), Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and Chronic Kidney disease (CKD). Subsequently, comparisons between comorbidity patient group and the non-comorbidity patient groups, in terms of serious events were made using the pooled estimates of odd's ratio (OR) RESULTS: We identified 688 published results and 16 studies with 3994 patients were included in the systematic review. Serious events were seen in 526(13.16%) patients. Presence of hypertension with OR 2.95, diabetes mellitus with OR 3.07, Cardio vascular disease with OR 4.58, COPD with OR 6.66 and Chronic kidney disease with OR 5.32 had significant association in patients with COVID 19 on having serious events. Presence of diabetes mellitus (OR 2.78)) had a significant impact on death in COVID 19 patients with a p-value 0.004. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of medical comorbidities in COVID-19 leads to higher risk of developing serious events i.e. ICU admission, mechanical intubation and mortality. The presence of Diabetes mellitus has a significant impact on mortality rate in COVID-19 patients.

Predicting Mortality Due to SARS-CoV-2: A Mechanistic Score Relating Obesity and Diabetes to COVID-19 Outcomes in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak poses a challenge to health care systems due to its high complication rates in patients with cardiometabolic diseases. Here, we identify risk factors and propose a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality, including specific factors for diabetes and obesity, and its role in improving risk prediction. METHODS: We obtained data of confirmed and negative COVID-19 cases and their demographic and health characteristics from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Mexican Ministry of Health. We investigated specific risk factors associated to COVID-19 positivity and mortality and explored the impact of diabetes and obesity on modifying COVID-19-related lethality. Finally, we built a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality. RESULTS: Among the 177 133 subjects at the time of writing this report (May 18, 2020), we observed 51 633 subjects with SARS-CoV-2 and 5,332 deaths. Risk factors for lethality in COVID-19 include early-onset diabetes, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, advanced age, hypertension, immunosuppression, and chronic kidney disease (CKD); we observed that obesity mediates 49.5% of the effect of diabetes on COVID-19 lethality. Early-onset diabetes conferred an increased risk of hospitalization and obesity conferred an increased risk for intensive care unit admission and intubation. Our predictive score for COVID-19 lethality included age ≥ 65 years, diabetes, early-onset diabetes, obesity, age < 40 years, CKD, hypertension, and immunosuppression and significantly discriminates lethal from non-lethal COVID-19 cases (C-statistic = 0.823). CONCLUSIONS: Here, we propose a mechanistic approach to evaluate the risk for complications and lethality attributable to COVID-19, considering the effect of obesity and diabetes in Mexico. Our score offers a clinical tool for quick determination of high-risk susceptibility patients in a first-contact scenario.